West Asia :

West Asia :

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West Asia :

Q"India's approach towards West Asia is guided more by strategic autonomy than bloc politics." Discuss in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.

For India, the region is a Rubik's Cube. Israel, the Gulf and ee-rahn are connected faces. Every move on one shifts another - Syed Akbaruddin

India's Multi-Dimensional Approach

1. Israel: Strategic & Defence Partner

Defence procurement, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation.eg- Heron Drones, Barak-8 etcetera

Key partner in agriculture, cybersecurity & innovation.eg-Netafin micro-irrigation

2. Gulf: Economic Lifeline

Over 9 million Indians reside in the Gulf.

Critical source of oil, L.N.G, remittances and investment.

Strong ties with Saudi Arabia and U.A.E through I.2.U.2 and cepa.

3. ee-rahn: Geostrategic Gateway

Chabahar Port provides access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Maintains strategic connectivity despite sanctions.

Challenges

Balancing Israel-ee-rahn rivalry without alienating either side. eg: India condemned October 2023 Hamas attacks while simultaneously calling for 2-state solution

Strait of Hormuz Blockades India's 40 to 50% of crude, 50% of L.N.G, and 90% of L.P.G imports pass through Hormuz.

Ensuring safety of the Indian diaspora during regional conflicts. eg - Op Sindhu (2025)

Managing global pressure while preserving independent decision-making.

India's Strategy

Issue-based alignment, not bloc politics.

Quiet diplomacy and continuous engagement with all stakeholders.

Calls for dialogue, de-escalation and humanitarian assistance.

Diversification of energy sources and strengthening maritime security.

Success for India will be defined on whether India can protects interest of diaspora, keep channels open and keep turning the cube without losing sight of the whole.

Impact of a Strait of Hormuz Blockade on India's National Security

Energy Security: 40 to 50% of crude, 50% of L.N.G, and 90% of L.P.G imports pass through Hormuz.

Economic Stability: Higher oil prices widen C-A-D, fuel inflation, and weaken the rupee.

Defence Readiness: Fuel shortages can constrain military logistics and operations.

Food Security: Costlier L.N.G raises fertilizer costs. 60% urea imports from gulf.

Trade Disruption: Higher freight costs increase import-export expenses.

Strategic Vulnerability: Greater exposure to West Asian geopolitical tensions.

Social Stability: Rising fuel prices increase subsidy burden and public hardship.

India-Jordan Relations :

P.M Narendra Modi's December 2025 visit to Jordan— first in 37 years—aimed to deepen India's engagement with strategically located West Asian partner amid regional instability.

Significance for India

Counter-Terrorism Cooperation

Both countries condemned terrorism and agreed to deepen security and intelligence cooperation. Example: Jordan supported India's stand after the Pahalgam terror attack (2025).

Fertilizer & Food Security

Jordan is a major supplier of phosphates and potash, critical for India's fertilizer industry.

Trade & Economic Partnership

Both sides set a target of increasing bilateral trade to U.S$5 billion over the next five years.

Digital & Technology Cooperation

India proposed linking U.P.I with Jordan's digital payment ecosystem.

Regional Peace & Diplomacy

Jordan plays a moderating role in the Israel–Palestine conflict and is custodian of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.

Civilizational & People-to-People Ties

Five agreements were signed, including a Petra–Ellora twinning agreement

renewed cultural exchange programme.

The visit coincided with the 75th anniversary of India–Jordan diplomatic relations.

Jordan is a "bridge state" in West Asia—strategically positioned between the Levant and the Gulf, making it an important partner for India's multilateral policy.

Israel September strikes in kuh-taar - a mediator and country that holds largest us base in M.E

Q.1. "West Asia is witnessing a major geopolitical transformation driven by economic diversification, regional reconciliation and strategic autonomy." Discuss India's evolving engagement with Jordan and Oman in this context.

West Asia is a key pillar of India's Link West Policy, driven by energy security, connectivity, diaspora interests and geopolitical stability. For India, the region is a Rubik's Cube. countries are connected faces. Every move on one shifts another - Syed Akbaruddin

India's Engagement with Jordan

1. Strategic Location

2. Political & Diplomatic Importance : Hashemite monarchy enjoys religious legitimacy through custodianship of Al-Aqsa Mosque. Maintains balanced ties with Israel while advocating the Palestinian cause.

4. Recent Initiatives

MoU on renewable energy

Water management cooperation

Petra–Ellora city twinning

Cultural Exchange Programme (2019 to 2029)

Digital partnership

Trade target: U.S$5 billion by 2030

India's Engagement with Oman

India's oldest strategic partner in the Gulf.

First West Asian country to sign a security agreement with India.

India–Oman cepa aims for tariff-free access to 98% of Oman's imports.

Alignment of Viksit Bharat 2047 with Oman Vision 2040.

Cooperation in maritime security, defence, military training and logistics.

Significance for India

Diversifies energy and trade partnerships.

Enhances India's maritime footprint in the Arabian Sea.

Counters extra-regional influence.

Supports India's role as a trusted development partner.

Jordan provides diplomatic depth in the Levant, while Oman anchors India's maritime and Gulf strategy. Together, they strengthen India's vision of a stable, multipolar and economically integrated West Asia.

Q.2. "The traditional security architecture of West Asia is undergoing significant change." Analyse the factors responsible for this transformation and examine its implications for India.

Introduction

West Asia is witnessing a transition from a U.S-centric security order to a multipolar regional architecture, characterised by strategic hedging, new security partnerships and external power competition.

Factors Driving the Transformation

1. Declining U.S Security Guarantees

Reduced American willingness to act as the region's security provider.

Arab states increasingly doubt U.S commitment during regional crises.

2. China's Rising Role

Brokered the Saudi Arabia–ee-rahn rapprochement (2023).

Expanding influence through B.R.I and economic diplomacy.

Challenges the traditional Carter Doctrine.

3. Regional Strategic Hedging

States now maintain relations with competing powers simultaneously.

Examples:

Saudi Arabia (U.S–China–Russia)

Turkey (nato and Russia)

U.A.E (U.S and China)

Implications for India

Opportunities

Greater strategic space.

Stronger partnerships with Jordan, Oman, U.A.E and Saudi Arabia.

Defence exports and security cooperation.

Energy security.

Challenges

Balancing Israel and Palestine.

Managing ties with ee-rahn amid sanctions.

Growing Chinese influence.

Regional instability affecting diaspora and trade.

De-Hyphenation with Pakistan.

India should leverage its policy of strategic autonomy to emerge as a trusted and balanced partner in West Asia while strengthening economic, maritime and security cooperation.West Asia is moving from alliance politics to "issue-based partnerships" driven by strategic hedging.

Q.3. What is Strategic Hedging? Discuss its growing importance in contemporary international relations with suitable examples. Examine India's approach in this regard.

Strategic hedging refers to a foreign policy strategy whereby a state simultaneously engages competing powers to maximise benefits while minimising strategic risks, without fully aligning with any one bloc.

Why Countries Adopt Strategic Hedging

Declining unipolarity and Rise of multipolarity.

Economic interdependence.

Uncertain security guarantees.

Avoidance of alliance dependence.

Global Examples

Saudi Arabia

Defence ties with the U.S.

Oil cooperation with Russia.

Economic engagement with China.

Turkey

nato member.

Purchases Russian S-400 systems.

Expands trade with China.

Pakistan

Historically allied with the U.S through cento and seato while developing close strategic ties with China.

India's Strategic Hedging

With the U.S

quad + Defence technology + Indo-Pacific cooperation

With Russia

Defence procurement + Energy imports + Nuclear cooperation

With West Asia

Simultaneous engagement with Israel, ee-rahn, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E, Jordan and Oman.

With Global South

Leadership through G.20, brics and the International Solar Alliance.

Benefits for India

Strategic autonomy. Passive Non-Alignment (standing apart from power blocs) to proactive Multi-Alignment and De-hyphenation

Diversified defence and energy sources - S.400 from Russia against U.S.A's caatsa.

Greater diplomatic flexibility. -

Enhanced global credibility.

Challenges

U.S–China rivalry.

Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Balancing sanctions with national interest.

Managing competing expectations of partners.

Strategic hedging has become the defining feature of contemporary diplomacy. For India, it complements strategic autonomy, enabling pursuit of national interests in an increasingly fragmented and multipolar world.

Dr. S. Jaishankar's dictum from The India Way: "In an era of structural flux, a nation must cultivate multiple choices, manage contradictions, and advance national interests without ideological baggage."

Q.4. "The existing multilateral order is increasingly unable to address contemporary geopolitical challenges." Critically examine the structural limitations of the United Nations and the need for reforms. (15 Marks)

Introduction

Established in 1945, the United Nations (U.N) was designed to maintain international peace and security. However, India criticised U.N. Charter as “anachronistic”, adding that it has failed in handling the COVID-19, the Ukraine war, terrorism and climate change.

Structural Limitations of the U.N

1. Outdated Security Council Structure

P.5 reflects the post-World War 2 order rather than present geopolitical realities.

Africa, Latin America and India remain underrepresented.

2. Misuse of Veto Power

Russia and China veto resolutions on Ukraine and Syria.

U.S frequently vetoes resolutions related to Israel.

Results in policy paralysis.

3. Resistance to Reforms

Coffee Club (Uniting for Consensus) opposes expansion of permanent membership.

Reform negotiations remain deadlocked.

4. Obsolete Charter Provisions

Enemy State Clauses still mention Germany, Japan and Italy despite their transformed global roles.

5. Limited Enforcement Capacity

Dependent on member states for finance, troops and implementation.

Peacekeeping missions often lack adequate mandates.

Need for Reforms

Expansion of permanent and non-permanent membership.

Reform or regulation of veto use.

Greater representation for developing countries.

Improved financing and peacekeeping mechanisms.

Stronger coordination on climate, pandemics and cyber security.

India's Stand

Supports Comprehensive U.N Security Council Reform.

Member of G.4 (India, Germany, Japan, Brazil) seeking permanent membership.

Advocates a more representative, effective and accountable U.N.

The credibility of the U.N depends on its ability to adapt to 21st-century geopolitical realities. Without institutional reforms, global governance risks becoming increasingly fragmented.

Value Addition: "Institutions created after 1945 cannot solve the problems of 2045 without reform."

Q.5. Discuss the implications of the transition from a U.S-led multilateral order to an emerging multipolar world. In your answer, explain the concepts of the Kindleberger Trap and the Thucydides Trap.

Introduction

The international system is transitioning from American-led unipolarity to an increasingly multipolar order. This shift is reshaping global governance, security, trade and strategic competition.

Understanding the Traps

1. Kindleberger Trap when existing hegemon withdraws from providing global public goods, while rising power is unwilling to assume those responsibilities.

Examples

Reduced U.S commitment to W.H.O, unesco and international institutions. eg : U.S.A withdrawl rom C.O.P and Paris Agreement.

2. Thucydides Trap : It refers to the tendency for conflict when a rising power challenges an established power. eg : South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and race for Semiconductor Lithography A.S.M.L tech restrictions) and A.I dominance.

Current example:

U.S–China strategic rivalry.

Competition in Indo-Pacific, technology, A.I and trade.

Implications of Emerging Multipolarity

Positive

Greater strategic autonomy for middle powers, Global South and Regional Institutes.

Diversification of global partnerships.

Negative

Intensified great-power competition, Weakening of multilateral institutions.

Fragmented global trade and technology regimes and Increased geopolitical uncertainty.

India's Perspective

Pursues multi-alignment.

Active in quad, brics, S.C.O and G.20.

Supports a rules-based but multipolar world order.

Advocates reform of global governance institutions.

The world is witnessing not merely a power transition but a transformation in the nature of global governance. Managing both the Kindleberger and Thucydides traps requires stronger multilateralism, responsible leadership and greater participation by emerging powers such as India.

Value Addition: Multipolarity without effective multilateralism risks creating strategic instability rather than shared prosperity.

Q.6. "The world is experiencing cascading crises due to the simultaneous erosion of multilateralism and the emergence of competing power centres." Discuss. How should India respond to this changing global order?

The U.N Secretary-General António Guterres has warned of a "dangerous erosion of trust in multilateralism." Simultaneous geopolitical, economic, health and climate shocks are producing cascading crises, where one crisis amplifies another.

Cascading Cries refer to interconnected issues - disruption in one domain triggers multiple crises.

Examples:

Russia–Ukraine War to Energy crisis to Inflation to Food insecurity.

Israel–Hamas conflict to Maritime disruptions to Supply chain shocks.

COVID-19 to Economic slowdown to Debt distress.

Why is Multilateralism Under Stress?

1. Declining U.S Leadership

Reduced willingness to provide global public goods.

Retreat from several international institutions.

2. Rise of Multipolarity

Emerging powers such as:

China , India , Russia ,Turkey , Saudi Arabia seek greater strategic autonomy.

3. Institutional Ineffectiveness

U.N Security Council paralysis.

W.T.O dispute settlement crisis.

I.M.F and World Bank governance concerns.

4. Intensifying Geopolitical Rivalries

U.S–China competition.

Russia–West confrontation. Weaponized Interdependence: eg freezing access to the swift financial clearing network

Regional conflicts.

India's Response

Diplomatic

Champion reformed multilateralism.

Strengthen the voice of the Global South.

Strategic

Continue strategic autonomy and issue-based partnerships.

Promote Indo-Pacific cooperation.

Economic

Diversify supply chains.

Strengthen resilient trade corridors.

Institutional

Push for reforms in the U.N, W.T.O, I.M.F and World Bank.

Expand South-South cooperation.

Conclusion

India is uniquely positioned as a bridging power between developed and developing worlds. By combining strategic autonomy, reformed multilateralism and inclusive diplomacy, India can play a pivotal role in shaping a stable and equitable multipolar order.

Value Addition: India's G.20 Presidency theme—"One Earth, One Family, One Future"—captures the need to transform cascading crises into opportunities for cooperative global governance.

U.N Crisis: Issues, Causes, India's Concerns and Global Impacts

Current Situation and Urgency

U.N currently faces an unprecedented financial crisis with debts reaching $1.57 billion, more than double the previous year.

Secretary General António Guterres warned of a possible collapse by July, likening the situation to a“Kafkaesque cycle” where members are expected to return cash that does not exist.

Delayed reforms and the outdated U.N Charter dating from 1945 have created deep dissatisfaction, especially among emerging powers like India.

U.S funding to the U.N has been blocked in recent years as part of an increasing protectionist approach in American foreign policy. U.S Ambassdor said "Days of blank cheques are over"

Archaic Structure and Reform Deadlock

The U.N Charter remains unrevised since 1945, retaining provisions such as references to “enemy states” from W.W.2.

India has vocally called the U.N structure “archaic” and has expressed frustration over blocked and delayed reforms.

Dr. S. Jaishankar on India's position:“The U.N reflects the realities of 1945, not of 2025.”

The Security Council (P.5) is sharply polarized into U.S-led and Russia–China-led blocs; each sides' vetoes have led to persistent deadlock.

Erosion of Trust in Multilateralism

The Secretary General's phrase “dangerous erosion” of trust in multilateralism highlights the crisis of credibility.

The P.5 gridlock, frequent disregard for global consensus, and blockage of major U.S funds have threatened U.N agencies such as the W.F.P, especially in conflict regions (e.g., Gaza, Sudan, Ethiopia).

Impact on U.N Agencies and Field Operations

World Food Programme (W.F.P):

Key Impacted Conflict Zones: Gaza, Sudan, Ethiopia

Impact: Services have nearly halted due to lack of funds.

The collapse of key agencies leads to a crisis in the delivery of global public goods. Member states such as India are less affected by the amount owed than by the structural and operational barriers created by unpaid dues and rising financial instability.

Systematic Weakening through Geopolitical Precedent

The crisis is not only due to current geopolitical tensions or ongoing wars but because of two decades of systematic weakening of international institutions.

There has been a rise in “export of ideology”—notably “Responsibility to Protect R.2.P, Truman Doctrine (Containment of Communism) , Carter Doctrine (by U.S.S.R), and Brezhnev Doctrine (Protect Persian Gulf by force if necessary) .

Regime changes (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, ee-rahn, Venezuela) by major Western powers were often not sanctioned by the U.N.

Examples include:

U.S invasion of Iraq (2003)

Afghanistan (2001)

Regime change in Libya (2011)

Involvement in Syria

Operations in ee-rahn

Actions against Venezuela and Greenland (2025/26)

Indian Perspectives on the U.N Crisis

Approach and Assertiveness

India's long-standing frustration with the U.N's failure to implement its own counter-terrorism resolutions.

India's demand for the expansion of the P.5 and for institutional reforms to reflect present-day (2025) power dynamics.

Realism with Principle - Global Institutions for Vasudev Kutambakum.

“measured assertiveness”—not aggressive but consistently firm.

bridge between the developed world and the Global South, advocating a more inclusive, democratic, and participative international system.

Schools of Thought on the Role and Relevance of the U.N

Realist Perspective

Human beings and states are inherently power-maximizing; the world is anarchic without a world government.

Emphasis on power politics, alliances, and the inevitability of conflicts; international cooperation is secondary to power struggles.

Empirical evidence (actions of the U.S, Russia, and China) confirms that power, not principles, shapes outcomes—supporting the realist perspective.

Constructivist Perspective

Symbolism and visibility in geopolitical interactions matter; repeated summits and dialogues keep the idea of a shared world order alive.

Interaction and negotiation increase the probability of solutions, even if not always effective (e.g., Minsk Agreements between Russia and Ukraine).

Liberal Institutionalism

Institutionalised cooperation through platforms like W.T.O, I.M.F, World Bank, and U.N reduces anarchy.

Even flawed cooperation is better than none, as it prevents a slide into complete disorder.

The assumption that economic interdependence (trade) prevents conflict is challenged by India-China border tensions.

António Guterres: Our task is not to restore the new order but to imagine Cooperation a new,

'U.N has lost relevance but is not entirely irrelevant'- It is the only platform where every state has a voice.

G.2 and Great Power Rivals: U.S-China Relations

Concept of G.2

G.2 refers to proposed joint management of global affairs by the world's two leading powers (currently the U.S and China).

The concept was first proposed in 2005 by C. Fred Bergsten.

Donald Trump is a prominent advocate, promoting G.2 to avoid another global flashpoint as the U.S is already resource-stretched by conflicts in Europe and West Asia.

Chinese Apprehensions and Views on G.2

China distrusts the U.S and fears that G.2 is a tactic to shift costs of global governance onto China or to destabilize China-Russia ties.

The Chinese prioritize internal development first (B.R.I, debt-based diplomacy), wary of overextension.

According to Xia Liping, G.2 rhetoric from the U.S is seen as tactical flattery rather than genuine partnership.

Inherent Contradictions in G.2

One partner (China) is not comfortable with the arrangement, seeing it as a U.S tool or trap.

China explicitly prefers to highlight the Thucydides Trap—the idea that conflict between a rising and an established power is nearly inevitable.

U.S insistence on G.2 stems from exhaustion with global conflicts and desire to maintain order without bearing all the costs.

U.S Facing Existential Threat from China?

Comparative Economic and Geopolitical Data

China's economy in 2025 is about 66% that of the U.S, similar to the relative strength of the U.S.S.R at its peak in the 1970s.

China is the top trading partner for most countries, with the B.R.I making China the single largest global debt collector; 42 countries owe at least 10% of G.D.P to China.

China rejected the U.N tribunal's South China Sea ruling and aggressively pursues projects and leverage in infrastructure and rare earth elements.

China's Strategic Approach

China combines economic expansion, technology, and population advantage.

Unlike the U.S.S.R, Chinese growth has led to real improvements in citizen lifestyles.

China out-competes global rivals in infrastructure projects—often using economic leverage to gain control (e.g.,Angola ,Uganda's Entebbe Airport ,Sri Lanka's Hambantota and Mattala projects ,Djibouti military base ).

Influence and Manipulation

China perfects the art of “buying elites” in post-colonial or small states; Professor S.D. Muni notes: ( for example,Angola ,Uganda's Entebbe Airport ,Sri Lanka's Hambantota and Mattala projects ,Djibouti military base ).

For “large” countries, China uses covert means and information warfare to exploit democratic fault lines (e.g., environmental activism affecting Indian copper industry).

China uses export controls on rare earth elements (essential for semiconductors), making it an irreplaceable supplier for advanced economies.

India's Position

India cannot afford binary choices between the U.S and China and instead builds regional alliances (Neighborhood First, net security provider doctrine, sagar, mahasagar).

Focus on multilateral collaboration and minimizing fallout of global rivalries.

The Thucydides Trap cannot be eliminated, but its destructive impact can be minimized.

Xi Jinping's “Constructive Strategic Stability”

Cooperation as the main driver

Competition within limits

Manageable differences

Predictable peace

India's Policies: Foreign Policy Orientation and Regional Priorities

Changes since 1991

Post 1991, the Indian economy has become more globally integrated.

India overcame its historical distrust of the U.S.A and developed constructive partnerships with the West.

De-hyphenation of India-Pakistan in global policy, now is more India-centered.

India shifted its focus from only immediate neighbours to an expanded set of strategic partnerships stretching to West Asia, Southeast/Central Asia, and Indo-Pacific islands.

Special ministry initiatives targeted countries neglected by India in past decades.

Act East Policy and Look East Policy

Look East (1992)

Focus Area: Southeast Asia (10 to 11 countries)

Objective: Accelerate India's economic growth after economic reforms

Act East (2015)

Focus Area: East & Southeast Asia, Indo-Pacific

Objective: Achieve a favorable balance of power in the region

4 C's: Culture, Commerce, Connectivity, Capacity building

Look East was based on economic outreach to American-aligned Southeast Asian countries.Act East, launched in 2015, focuses on power dynamics in the broader Indo-Pacific, accounting for aggressive Chinese outreach.

Diplomatic Strategies: Lessons from the Mahabharata

Arjun:

Diplomatic Lesson/Analogy: “Soft state” confusion but need for action

Application to Indian Policy: Indian state must overcome dilemmas and fulfill responsibilities

Sishupal:

Diplomatic Lesson/Analogy: Strategic patience and forgiveness

Application to Indian Policy: Force is always a considered, not first, option

Duryodhan:

Diplomatic Lesson/Analogy: Rigid, conventional thinking choosing Army.

Application to Indian Policy: Modern conflict involves innovation, information warfare

Trigata warriors:

Diplomatic Lesson/Analogy: Danger from smaller adversaries, distraction

Application to Indian Policy: Do not ignore secondary threats

Jayadrath:

Diplomatic Lesson/Analogy: Distraction from core objectives

Application to Indian Policy: Importance of maintaining strategic focus

The use of force should be a considered option, not the first response. Modern diplomatic and warfare challenges go beyond military and require innovation, psychological operations, analytics, and alliances.

Evolving Geopolitics: India-E.U Relationship

Genesis and Strategic Upgrades

The E.U announced its India Strategy in 2018, upgraded in 2025, recognizing India's rise as a stable, pluralistic democracy with an impressive growth trajectory.

The E.U's official statement:“India's success benefits the E.U just as the E.U's success benefits India.”

Five Pillars of E.U-India Partnership (2025)

Prosperity and Sustainability: Trade, investment, clean energy transition

Technology & Innovation: Digitization, critical/emerging tech, research cooperation

Security and Defense: Security engagement, defense industrial cooperation

Connectivity & Global Issues: Global governance, connectivity, cooperation in third countries

People-centered (Supportive): Mobility, skill development, mutual trust

Motivations for the E.U's Pivot to India

Breakdown of U.S's transatlantic security umbrella; Trump's unpredictability diminishes Europe's reliance on the U.S.

Assertive China compels diversification away from dependency.

Russia-Ukraine war creates energy and security crises for Europe.

Indian political stability, demographic strength, and market size make it attractive.

Shared goals around a rules-based Indo-Pacific and diversification in defense imports.

The Middle Power Theory in International Relations

Core Arguments by Canada's Prime Minister Mike Carney

Great powers (U.S, China, Russia) have turned “rogue”, increasing global volatility and insecurity. Middle powers should unite, using variable geometry (flexible, issue-based coalitions), to balance great power arbitrariness.

“Performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination” describes states allied with great powers but lacking real independence.

Middle powers together can offer legitimacy, integrity, and rules-based order, using soft and smart power to balance hard power.

Value-based realism is promoted—mixing normative values with realpolitik.

Hard, Soft, and Smart Power (Joseph Nye's concepts)

Hard Power: Military, economic sanctions, direct coercion

Examples: Russia in Ukraine, Israel, U.S sanctions

Soft Power: Cultural, ideological dominance through consent and attraction

Examples: U.S movies/music; yoga as Indian power

Smart Power: Strategic combination of hard and soft power

Examples: U.S blending military threats and negotiations

The threat of violence (Machiavelli) can sometimes matter more than violence itself. The mix of value-based realism, sovereignty, integrity, and rules-based conduct is seen as the path for middle powers to collectively shape a legitimate and stable world order.

India's Regional Neighborhood Priorities

Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar

Bangladesh: Policy after Operation Sindhu and with the new B.N.P government, addressing challenges like political asylum (Sheikh Hasina) and potential bullying by Bangladesh.

Pakistan: The adoption of graded escalation and defensive offense as the current policy approach.

China: Approach summarized in“Elephant-Dragon-Tango” and“India's 3 D's”

Myanmar: Limited choices due to complex conflicts and militarization.

Nepal: Complications due to a new government refusing to meet with Indian officials without protocol parity.

Central Asia: Limited connectivity and low trade figures have driven new policies, such as“Connect Central Asia” .

Quotable Insights from Scholars and Policymakers

Dr. S. Jaishankar:

“The U.N reflects the realities of 1945, not of 2025.”

“India can act as a bridge between developed world and Global South.”

Force is always a considered, never the first, option.

António Guterres:

“Dangerous erosion of trust in multilateralism.”

“Kafkaesque cycle—expected to give back cash that does not exist.”

“Our Task is Not to restore a lost order, but to imagine cooperation anew.”

Michael Waltz (U.S Amb.):“The days of blank checks to the U.N are over.”

Prof. S.D. Muni:“China has perfected the art of buying the elites in small countries.”

Antonio Gramsci:“The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born. Now is the time for monsters.”

Prime Minister Modi:“India and E.U share commitments, goals, and responsibilities.”

Mike Carney (Canada P.M):“Performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.”

Harsh V Pant - Next great game in Indian Ocean.

India Neigbours:

Mahasagar Doctrine:

mahasagar stands for Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions. It was unveiled by Narendra Modi during his visit to Mauritius in March 2025 as the next evolution of India's maritime vision, expanding earlier sagar doctrine.

"If sagar reflected India's maritime responsibility, mahasagar reflects its maritime ambition."

Shift from regional maritime focus to global anchoring

Reinforces India's role as a net security provider.

India-Mauritius -

1. Strategic & Maritime

Maritime security partner under sagar/mahasagar.

E.E.Z surveillance by Indian Navy.

Joint exercises and H.A.D.R cooperation.

Agaléga Island airstrip and jetty enhance maritime logistics.

2. Defence

Supply of patrol vessels C.G.S Barracuda).

Dornier aircraft.

Training of Mauritian defence personnel.

Capacity building for Coast Guard.

3. Economic

C.E.C.P.A (2021) – India's first trade agreement with an African nation.

F.D.I and financial services.

Infrastructure projects through Indian assistance.

4. Development Partnership

Metro Express Project.

Supreme Court Building.

E.N.T Hospital.

Social housing.

Community development projects.

5. Space & Digital

Satellite cooperation.

Telemedicine & tele-education.

Digital public infrastructure collaboration.

6. Diaspora & Culture

O.C.I links.

Shared festivals and languages.

Ayurveda, Yoga, I.C.C.R scholarships.

Seychelles:

In I.O.R Geography matters, more than Size.

size less than 500sq km but S.E.Z over 1million sq K.M

Special Economic Package: India announced U.S.D 175 million (U.S.D 125 million Line of Credit + U.S.D 50 million grant) for infrastructure, maritime security and capacity building.

Strategic Significance for India

Maritime Security

Located in the Western Indian Ocean near critical Sea Lines of Communication.

Helps secure India's energy imports and maritime trade.

Unlike France and U.S.A, India does not have territories in Deep I.O.R.

mahasagar in Action : Demonstrates India's shift from sagar to mahasagar, integrating security, development, blue economy, climate resilience and digital cooperation.

Countering Strategic Competition : Reinforces India's role as the preferred security and development partner amid increasing Chinese engagement in the Indian Ocean.

Blue Economy & Climate : Cooperation in marine conservation, fisheries, renewable energy and climate resilience strengthens India's Indo-Pacific outreach.

Global South Diplomacy : Reflects India's model of capacity building, grants, digital public goods and demand-driven development, distinguishing it from purely infrastructure-led approaches

For India Seychelles help safeguard vital sealines, strenghten maritime cooperation and reinforce India's vision of free, stable and open I.O.R.

Thailand :

P.M Modi's visit to Thailand marked the elevation of India–Thailand ties to a Strategic Partnership and coincided with the 6th bimstek Summit, reinforcing India's Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific vision.

Key outcomes included cooperation in defence, connectivity, trade, M.S.M.E's, digital technologies and maritime security, along with a Joint Plan of Action.

The visit also advanced implementation of the bimstek Bangkok Vision 2030, strengthened maritime connectivity through the bimstek Maritime Transport Agreement, and aligned the asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (A.O.I.P) with India's Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (I.P.O.I).

Thailand = India's maritime bridge to asean.

bimstek = operational link between India's Neighbourhood First and Act East policies

Bay of Bengal is emerging as the strategic hinge connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

A.O.I.P + I.P.O.I convergence strengthens a free, open, inclusive & rules-based Indo-Pacific

Challenges : I.M.T delayted _ China Influence expanding

way ahead : Cross sectoral collaboration- fintech,digital +

Bilateral and Regional Groupings

Both nations are members of bimstek and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation M.G.C.

bimstek includes India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal (South Asia) and Thailand, Myanmar (Southeast Asia).

The sixth bimstek summit (Bangkok) advanced regional cooperation, focusing on motor vehicle agreements and port linkages.

Comparison: bimstek vs saarc

bimstek is less asymmetric; member states feel reassured by Thailand's presence compared to India's dominance in saarc.

Current Issues and Challenges

India faces trade deficits with Thailand; the solution lies in diversifying exports and resolving non-tariff barriers.

Large infrastructure projects like Kaladan, Chabahar, and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway are delayed; some serve as alternatives to China's B.R.I.

Both sides need to address logistical, bureaucratic, and connectivity challenges.

The Myanmar Factor

Coup and military rule in Myanmar, with ethnic armed organizations controlling large areas, complicate Indian outreach.

India must engage multiple actors, drawing inspiration from China'smulti-pronged diplomacy .

Myanmar may move towards a loose confederation; engagement with all stakeholders is necessary to safeguard Indian interests.

Para-Diplomacy and Regional Engagement

Indian states close to Myanmar (e.g., Mizoram's Chief Minister Lalduhoma) have initiated dialogue with ethnic Chin groups, although this diverges from central government policy.

The concept of para-diplomacy allows regional initiatives like border haats with Bangladesh and participation in investment summits.

Counter-Narcotics and Maritime Security

Drug trafficking from the Golden Triangle (Thailand, Myanmar, Laos) poses transnational threats.

India's engagement helps counter trafficking and organized crime.

Focus on joint defense production, technology sharing, and cross-sectoral collaborations (A.I, FinTech, renewable energy, space).

India's Engagement with Bhutan

Strategic and Economic Relationship

Bhutan is a critical buffer state between India and China, sitting north of the Siliguri Corridor (the"Chicken's Neck" ).

India is Bhutan's largest partner, supporting political stability, infrastructure development, and economic growth through a grant of ₹2,150 crore.

Key Areas of Cooperation

Hydropower: Projects like Tala (1,020 megawatt) and Chukha (336 megawatt) constitute 40% of Bhutan's national revenue and a quarter of its G.D.P.

Infrastructure links: India facilitates Bhutan's access to Indian ports, digital payment systems (RuPay, U.P.I), and helps develop rail and air connectivity.

Security: The Indian Army protects Bhutan, and bilateral ties function as a model for South Asian cooperation.

Unique Features and Doctrinal Elements

Bhutan is not part of China's B.R.I (Belt and Road Initiative), likened to a 21st-century Marshall Plan aiming to bind countries to China's economic sphere.

Bhutan prioritizes environmental concerns—Gross National Happiness G.N.H and net carbon neutrality drive its policies.

Withdrew from B.B.I.N (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) transport agreement over pollution worries; India continues to negotiate.

Doklam Standoff

The 2017 Doklam standoff at the Bhutan-India-China tri-junction underscored the necessity of Indian military support in regional security.

Bhutan's attempt to suggest trilateral dialogue was seen as validating Chinese territorial claims, which did not align with Indian interests.

Afghanistan: Engagement with the Taliban

Historical Context and Evolution

Taliban formed in the 1990s with backing from the U.S, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, initially to counter the Soviet occupation.

Taliban 1.0 (late 1990s) recognized only by Saudi Arabia, U.A.E, and Pakistan, hosted Al-Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden, leading to U.S intervention in 2001.

After U.S and nato withdrawal in 2021, Taliban 2.0 regained control with no significant domestic resistance.

India's Reasons for Engagement

All major regional actors (ee-rahn, China, Russia, U.S, kuh-taar, Central Asia) are in dialogue with the Taliban; India risks losing influence if absent.

The Durand Line remains disputed, splitting Pashtun populations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, fueling cross-border nationalism detrimental to Pakistani interests.

Anti-Pakistani sentiments among Taliban stem from Pakistan's previous compromises with the U.S; India can utilize this strategic fault line.

India's engagement provides the Taliban needed legitimacy and counters Pakistan's goal of making Afghanistan a proxy.

Humanitarian and Practical Considerations

India is a key donor to Afghanistan; many Afghan students, women, and patients rely on India for education and medical needs.

Taliban's discriminatory policies especially impact women, with education and employment restrictions.

India advocates for at least limited access for Afghan women to travel for education and treatment.

Diplomatic Approach

Engagement does not equate to ideological endorsement. India works with governments regardless of their political systems.

India does not pursue export of values or systems, focusing instead on pragmatic interests and regional stability.

India also supports voices critical of the Taliban by providing platforms within India without directly interfering in Afghanistan's internal politics.

India's Relations with Bangladesh

Current Scenario

Recent regime change; Sheikh Hasina (Awami League) replaced by B.N.P's leader, shifting the political landscape.

India continues to provide grants and economic lifelines, positioning itself as an essential regional partner.

Strategic Recommendations

Security and safety should be ensured for Sheikh Hasina, who remains in India for protection; previous suggestions to move her to a third country have been debated.

Without alienating the government, India should also build ties with opposition groups—B.N.P, Jamaat-e-Islami, and other actors.

Engagement with opposition helps avoid overreliance on any one political faction, as occurred in earlier policies toward Bangladesh.

Priority Areas

India should involve Western partners to limit violence against minorities, especially Hindus, and strengthen institutional protections through joint efforts.

Economic engagement must be broadened with Gulf partners, creating diversified economic lifelines for Bangladesh.

India must move beyond romanticizing the 1971 liberation war; bilateral relations should focus on current strategic and economic interests.

Critique of Previous Approaches

Past mistakes included not reaching out to opposition leaders, use of excessive force against protests, and relying excessively on the Awami League narrative.

Today's Bangladesh features a mainstreamed fringe; India's engagement must include all credible stakeholders.

Appointment of Dinesh Trivedi as Ambassador

As a non-career diplomat and former politician, Trivedi is expected to reach out effectively to varied groups in Bangladesh.

Precedent exists for such appointments without significant controversy.

Strategic Approaches Across Regional Themes

Common Strategic Patterns

Policies are not exclusively targeted at countering China but are primarily structured for India's sovereign interests, with China containment as a subset.

Great Nicobar Project

Strategic Significance

The Great Nicobar project sits on the strategically crucial 6 Degree Channel, a gateway to the Malacca Strait.

The Malacca Strait is vital for global trade, with over 30% of seaborne trade and more than 80% of China's oil imports passing through.

The term “Malacca Dilemma” refers to China's strategic vulnerability due to its dependence on the Malacca Strait for energy imports.

Changi Naval Base (Singapore) and Sabang Port (Indonesia) are key entry/exit points for the Malacca Strait, with the Indian Navy having access to both.

In the event of conflict, India could potentially choke the Malacca Strait, similar to ee-rahn's actions in the Strait of Hormuz—highlighting the importance of Sea Lines of Communication S.L.O.C's and choke points.

Supply lines matter as much as military capability : blockading Malacca could severely disrupt China.

Port and Infrastructure Features

Galathea Bay, selected for the port, offers a natural draft of 20 meters, deep enough for the world's largest mega ships to dock.

The project aims to help India achieve 10% of global vessel manufacturing, up from less than 1% currently.

India's nautical coastline stretches to almost 11,000 kilometers, but India lacks a deep-water transshipment port; most cargo is diverted to Colombo and Singapore, incurring large foreign exchange costs.

The International Container Transshipment Terminal I.C.T.T will handle up to 14.2 million T.E.U's (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units ).

This infrastructure will shift logistics gravity away from foreign ports and save significant overseas expenditure.

Improved port capacity would support India's ambitions in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific and bolster shipbuilding capabilities.

Regional Security and Geopolitics

China shares a land border with India across three sectors: Western (Ladakh, Aksai Chin), Middle (Uttarakhand, Himachal/Chumbi Valley), and Eastern (Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim).

China lacks coastal access to the I.O.R (Indian Ocean Region) but is actively seeking influence via infrastructure projects and the “string of pearls”: Gwadar (Pakistan), Chittagong (Bangladesh), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), and potential Kra Canal (Thailand).

The Great Nicobar Project is central to India's efforts to monitor and restrict Chinese maritime activity, as all eastward bypasses would still traverse the Bay of Bengal under Indian Navy surveillance.

The project acts as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”, with future plans for a Greenfield Airport, P 81 Poseidon deployment, and fighter jets—serving as a security springboard.

Environmental Impact and Mitigation Measures

The Ministry of Environment and Forests mandated a rigorous Environment Management Plan E.M.P, allocating ₹3,500 crore for ecological protection measures before construction.

Geological Survey of India established a Coral Translocation Project to protect marine biodiversity.

Dedicated sanctuaries for giant leatherback turtles are integrated to protect nesting habitats.

The project area will lose 124 sq km of forested land, but legal mandates require compulsory afforestation totaling 247 sq km in Haryana and Madhya Pradesh.

Since Nicobar already has 82 to 85% forest cover (above the 75% threshold), afforestation is redirected to deprived states with minimal forest cover such as Haryana (3.5%).

Stringent measures ensure Shompen tribe habitats are not harmed, as the project bypasses their reserves.

Geostrategic Roles and Capabilities

Great Nicobar serves as an oceanic outpost for continental India, complementing the only tri-services command at Port Blair (Army, Navy, Air Force).

Andaman & Nicobar Islands share maritime boundaries with Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

The region provides India a strategic vantage point for the “Act East” policy and maritime surveillance.

In conflict, India can potentially control or disrupt Malacca Strait traffic using geographic and infrastructural advantages.

Ongoing Conflicts and Impact on India

Major Global Conflicts and Indian Policy Response

Current conflicts: West Asia (Israel-Hamas/ee-rahn), Russia-Ukraine, and resulting Western sanctions.

India advocates a consistent ceasefire policy: emphasizes dialogue, diplomacy, and de-escalation.

A multi-pronged strategy for energy security includes supply diversification, enhancing domestic oil/gas production, rapid adoption of clean energy, and energy transition partnerships.

The Inter-Ministerial Group I.M.G for Supply Chain Resilience monitors trade, shipping, and energy affordability concerns.

India reviews regulatory mechanisms and maintains international coordination to minimize disruptions.

Geopolitical Realism and Historic Context

Indian policy avoids direct interference in external conflicts, referencing past episodes like Rajiv Gandhi's unsuccessful mediation attempt with Saddam Hussein during the Kuwait crisis.

India's stance on Jammu and Kashmir is consistently bilateral; India neither accepts nor offers external mediation in analogous foreign disputes.

The West Asian conflict is multi-layered and does not lend itself to simplification or direct Indian intervention.

India-U.S Relations

Core Issues and Strategic Autonomy

Primary friction: U.S discomfort with India's pursuit of “strategic autonomy”—India acts in self-interest regardless of Western preferences, especially with Russia, ee-rahn, and Myanmar.

The U.S criticizes India's procurement of Russian oil and defense equipment S 400, plus engagement with Myanmar's military regime.

Strategic autonomy rests on independent policy positions and resource-backed decisions.

Major Challenges in Bilateral Relations

The U.S has imposed tariffs, protectionist policies, and restrictions on H 1 B visas, complicating trade and mobility.

Intellectual Property Rights (I.P.R) disputes: India is on the U.S.T.R's “priority list” and faces pressure to strengthen its I.P.R regime due to alleged copyright violations.

The “deep state” (U.S permanent institutions—State Department, intelligence, and military) plays a major role in pressuring India on human rights, I.P.R, and foreign policy.

Issue-wise snapshot

Strategic Autonomy: Russian oil & arms, engagement with Myanmar and ee-rahn

I.P.R and Trade: U.S.T.R lists India, copyright violations, trade surplus versus U.S deficit

Protectionism: Tariffs, H 1 B restrictions, U.S judicial supremacy, executive actions

Deep State Interference: State Dept., C.I.A, pressure via human rights (example comparison: Pearl Harbor led to O.S.S deep state formation)

Regional Approach (Re-hyphenation): Trump administration re-hyphenating India-Pakistan; regional special envoy appointment (Sergio Corr)

Re-hyphenation and India-Pakistan-U.S Triangle

Re-hyphenation means the U.S engaging India and Pakistan as equals, which India opposes.

Trump's administration attempted to internationalize Kashmir, equate Pakistan and India, and involve both in negotiations.

The four key issues with U.S policy under Trump:

Granting Pakistan a seat at the table despite ongoing proxy warfare.

Internationalization of Kashmir, which India rejects as strictly bilateral.

Creating artificial equivalence between India and Pakistan.

Diluting the previous U.S acknowledgment of Pakistan's complicity in terrorism.

Attempts at “de-hyphenation” (treating India and Pakistan independently) are being reversed; regional ambassadorships dilute India-specific U.S focus.

Defense, Strategic, and Diaspora Ties

India and the U.S have seven key military agreements and continue cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

Defense engagements remain outside the Quad and are pursued bilaterally due to geography and logistical constraints.

Extensive Indian diaspora in the U.S (over 5 million) strengthens bilateral ties, including influence on crucial agreements like the civil nuclear deal.

Indian diaspora is labeled as “cultural ambassadors”, supporting trade, policy, and people-to-people links.

Civilizational Diplomacy and Soft Power

The Indian Council for Cultural Relations (I.C.C.R) drives civilizational diplomacy, offering approximately 4,000 scholarships to 193 countries and promoting Indian languages, philosophy, and culture.

Soft power initiatives include sponsorships of Indian Studies Chairs, academic fellowships, and facilitation of global cultural events like International Yoga Day.

Diplomacy through shared religion, language, philosophy, and history supports long-term partnerships, especially in Asia.

The Quad and Regional Groupings

Quad (U.S, India, Japan, Australia): Constraints and Evolution

Geography limits the Quad's ability to become a nato-like military alliance; strategic reach is insufficient for a strong collective military framework. ( prof John Mearsheimer )

The Quad's focus is primarily regional cooperation, with security issues handled bilaterally.

China calls the Quad an “Asian nato”, but lack of geographic contiguity makes it inaccurate.

The U.S focus is shifting from “pivot to Asia” toward a diversified approach, withdrawing critical assets due to commitments in the Middle East and Europe.

aukus and G.2: Impacts on the Quad

New groupings like aukus (Australia, U.K, U.S) and potential U.S-China “G.2” reduce regional balance and diminish the Quad's relevance.

The U.S regional command has renamed the Indo-Pacific as the “U.S Pacific”, reflecting strategic shifts.

Global South and Multilateralism

Definition and Composition

Global South comprises underdeveloped/developing regions: Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

The term “Third World” is rejected as derogatory.

Key Challenges Facing the Global South

External Geopolitical Pressures

Great power rivalry (U.S-China, Russia-West) disproportionately affects Global South countries—disrupted supply chains, inflation, and reduced development focus.

“When elephants fight, the grass suffers.” Major power interests overshadow Global South priorities.

Enduring Structural Challenges

Clean energy transition remains underfunded and technologically challenging; advanced tech and finance are often unavailable to poorer countries.

Persistent issues: poverty, disease, epidemics, food insecurity, and lack of quality healthcare and education.

Coherence among Global South countries is undermined by China's selective infrastructure investments and predatory loans, causing competition and fragmentation.

Technological and Multilateral Divides

The Global South lacks technological know-how and depends on developed economies.

Absence of genuine multilateral reform prevents equitable representation and voice in global affairs.

3.F Problem: Food, Fuel, Fertilizer

Vulnerabilities relate to access and affordability of food, fuel, and fertilizers, aggravated by war and global disruptions.

Impact of West Asian Conflicts

Pre 2022, West Asia was moving toward cohesion: blockades lifted (kuh-taar), Assad re-admitted to the Arab League, and normalization moves (Abraham Accords).

The Palestinian issue resurged as a major disruptor, described as the “original sin” of the region.

Western Intervention: R.2.P and Normative Power

Responsibility to Protect (R.2.P) is used to legitimize interventions (Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan).

Often, interventions install less stable and more radical regimes, showing Western geopolitical hypocrisy.

Table: Major Problems of the Global South

Clean Energy Transition: lack of technology, finance, and high cost of alternatives

Poverty and Development: malnutrition, epidemics, unemployment, weak health and education infrastructure

Geopolitical Fragmentation: China's loans/infrastructure disrupt coherence

Technology Divide: technical know-how missing; dependency on developed world

Multilateral Reform Deficit: under-representation and weak voice in global institutions

3.F Challenge: vulnerability in food, fuel, fertilizer access

Western Intervention (R.2.P): regime changes often increase instability

India's Role and Response

India shows traditional leadership: Non-Aligned Movement roots and advocacy of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities” C.B.D.R.

Initiatives include International Solar Alliance, stabilization of energy prices, and large-scale vaccine diplomacy.

India opposes Western hypocrisy, champions “genuine multilateralism”, and argues that it represents the Global South.

Limitations

The Global South is fragmented; it includes both poor (Bhutan) and rich (Singapore) nations.

China's influence via B.R.I (32 Global South countries are B.R.I members) complicates collective coherence.

Despite practical limitations, India uses the Global South platform for strategic and diplomatic benefits.

brics and S.C.O

brics

Foundational aspects: represent emerging economies; currently control 26% of global trade and 49.5% of the world's population.

Membership expanded:

Core members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (brics).

New entrants: ee-rahn, U.A.E, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia (Saudi Arabia pending, not formalized due to external vetoes).

Problems faced by brics:

China dominance (Chinese G.D.P outweighs all others combined).

Enlargement brings political baggage and internal conflicts (e.g., ee-rahn-U.A.E disputes).

brics is often reactive rather than proactive; lack of clear roadmap for multilateral reform.

Proposal for a brics currency is opposed by India; pegging the rupee to weaker economies is not beneficial, and China would dominate any such currency.

Advantages for India:

Founding member leverage.

No Pakistan presence reduces obstructionism (unlike in S.C.O).

Alignment with Global South causes supports India's leadership pitch.

Growing interest in membership (30 countries) reflects frustration with existing global forums and demand for newer, more inclusive institutions.

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (S.C.O)

Membership includes both India and Pakistan (since 2017).

India's influence is more limited due to adversarial or less aligned members.

brics, unlike S.C.O, allows India more scope for leadership and steering agenda—especially around the Global South.

U.S Doctrines and the Western Hemisphere

Monroe Doctrine and Dunro Doctrine

The Monroe Doctrine historically asserted the Western Hemisphere is under U.S strategic interest, barring external interference.

The “Dunro Doctrine” (Trump corollary) in the U.S National Security Strategy 2025 reiterates that non-hemispheric competitors (Russia and China) must stay out of the Americas.

Practical applications include U.S actions regarding Greenland, Venezuela, and broader approaches toward adversaries in Latin America.

Venezuela Case

Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves but suffers from economic mismanagement due to excessive state control and inadequate technological investment.

U.S grievances include:

Nationalization (thus “seizure”) of American oil infrastructure.

Ideological opposition to Venezuela's socialist axis (with Cuba and Nicaragua).

Disruptive role of drug cartels.

Socioeconomic crisis: large emigration, many entering the U.S via Mexico, further inflaming U.S strategic interest.

India's Position in Russia-Ukraine Conflict

India maintained strategic neutrality during the Russia-Ukraine war, refusing to endorse the Western narrative of defending the “free world.”

India acknowledges Russia as a critical defense partner: approximately 45 to 50% of India's defense equipment is Russian-origin despite diversification.

India sourced cheap oil and energy from Russia after Western sanctions, turning economic disruption into relative advantage.

India publicly supported sovereignty and dialogue (referencing the Minsk Agreements) without alienating either the West or Russia.

India continued engaging the West, finalizing an F.T.A with the U.S, while highlighting leadership for the Global South by voicing concerns on global inflation and trade disruptions.

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